A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that polarised the country and caused disorder, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly contentious and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the political, financial and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly divided society where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in academia but hardly any government figures or campaigners want to engage even with the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer advocates unity or the status quo. They authors two articles that seek neutrality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and societal figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover identity markers, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," commented O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens report they prefer unity but oppose increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a negligent official who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, valid arguments, he said. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will eventually not succeed but each side has has something to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the discussion, said the analyst. "This involves your state. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
